Phoenix Enters a Buyer’s Market: Are Prices Falling, and Which Cities Offer Buyers the Most Leverage?
As 2026 enters its final two months, the Greater Phoenix housing market is shifting.
For the past few years, Phoenix buyers often had to decide fast — sometimes competing against multiple offers on the same home. Now, with more homes for sale and slower sales activity, buyers in parts of the Valley are gaining negotiating room.
But does that apply everywhere in Greater Phoenix? How do Chandler, Gilbert, Tempe, Mesa, Queen Creek, and Peoria differ?
Here’s what the latest data shows.
1. Are Phoenix Home Prices Actually Falling?
October data, released in early November, shows several notable shifts:
| Metric | October 2026 |
|---|---|
| Median sales price, year over year | -1.5% |
| Active listings | 27,427 |
| Active listings, year over year | +6.8% |
| Listings under contract, year over year | -13.5% |
| Closed sales, year over year | -9.8% |
Source: AZ Big Media, Greater Phoenix October market report (November 2026).
The main story here isn’t just that prices dipped — it’s that buyer demand has cooled while supply has grown. Put another way: 27,427 homes are for sale, but only 6,347 are under contract — roughly one in four listings has a buyer.
The median sales price fell 1.5% year over year. That means the market overall has softened slightly — not that every home lost 1.5% of its value. A median-priced home costs about $6,800 less than it did a year ago. Performance still varies widely by price range, age, city, and neighborhood.
2. What Is a Buyer’s Market — and Why Does It Matter Now?
In real estate, when supply is ample relative to demand, buyers have more choices and sellers typically need more time to close.
Greater Phoenix uses the Cromford Market Index (CMI) to track the balance of supply and demand. By the Cromford Report’s standard scale, a reading below 90 favors buyers, 90 to 110 is roughly balanced, and above 110 favors sellers.
As of November 6, 2026, the overall index had fallen to 65.1 — clearly buyer’s-market territory.
For buyers who are ready, that creates real opportunity:
- More homes to compare, with less pressure to decide on the spot.
- Some sellers are more willing to negotiate.
- Some builders are offering rate buydowns or other incentives.
One caution: well-located, well-priced homes in good condition can still draw multiple buyers.
3. The Key Difference: Not Every City Is the Same Market
For anyone buying in Greater Phoenix, the metro-wide average matters less than the city you’re actually looking in.
Here is the Cromford Market Index by city, from October 29, 2026:
| City | CMI | Market |
|---|---|---|
| Scottsdale | 133.6 | Seller’s market |
| Chandler | 110.5 | Seller’s market |
| Gilbert | 92.5 | Near balanced |
| Mesa | 86.6 | Buyer’s market |
| Glendale | 86.2 | Buyer’s market |
| Peoria | 68.6 | Buyer’s market |
| Tempe | 63.0 | Buyer’s market |
| Surprise | 57.2 | Buyer’s market |
| Queen Creek | 43.8 | Buyer’s market |
Note: City figures are from October 29, 2026; the overall market index is from November 6, 2026.
The takeaway: there is no single Greater Phoenix housing market.
Chandler, for example, still has relatively steady demand — buyers there shouldn’t expect the same negotiating room they’d find in Queen Creek or Surprise.
And even within the East Valley, Tempe and Mesa tell different supply-and-demand stories.
Queen Creek, Peoria, and Surprise, by contrast, currently offer buyers more room to compare prices, builder incentives, and seller concessions.
4. Which City Should You Consider First?
Every city has its own strengths. A buyer’s-market reading isn’t the only reason to choose a place to live — it should be weighed against your own needs.
Chandler: Established Neighborhoods and Convenience
Chandler offers mature neighborhoods, tech and manufacturing jobs, and well-developed shopping and amenities.
For East Valley buyers, Chandler is worth a close look.
Because supply and demand are relatively steady here, buyers should focus on recent sales in specific neighborhoods rather than negotiating off the metro-wide average.
Gilbert: Balance Between Lifestyle and Choice
Gilbert has many newer communities, plus parks, shopping centers, and recreational amenities — a strong fit for families.
Its index sits near balanced, meaning buyers and sellers have roughly comparable negotiating power.
Buyers interested in Gilbert should compare home age, HOA fees, maintenance condition, and actual sold prices.
Tempe: Central Location, ASU, and Rental Demand
Tempe sits at the center of the metro area, home to Arizona State University and close to Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport.
Beyond owner-occupants, Tempe is a city many real estate investors watch closely. Its CMI of 63.0 puts it firmly in buyer’s-market territory.
For buyers considering a primary residence or a rental property, now is a good time to compare list prices, sold prices, and rents across Tempe neighborhoods.
Queen Creek: Worth a Look for Newer Homes
Queen Creek continues to add new-home communities across a range of sizes, floor plans, and price points.
In the current buyer-friendly environment, shoppers may find builder incentives such as closing-cost assistance, upgrades, or rate buydowns.
Builder incentives often come with conditions, so compare the total cost — not just the advertised incentive.
Peoria and Surprise: Space, Budget, and New Communities
Peoria and Surprise offer a wide range of housing, from established neighborhoods to new construction.
For families with a clear budget who want to compare home types and builder options, both cities are worth including in the search.
Both are currently buyer’s markets. Peoria is also close to TSMC’s North Phoenix campus, making it especially worth considering for TSMC-affiliated families and employees.
5. Is Now a Good Time to Buy?
That’s the question every buyer is asking.
The answer isn’t simply “buy now” or “wait — it’ll get cheaper.”
Price is only one part of the cost of buying a home. Mortgage rates, down payment, insurance, property taxes, HOA fees, and how long you plan to stay all affect what you can actually afford.
For example, take a $450,000 home with 20% down — a $360,000 loan. On a 30-year fixed mortgage:
| Rate | Monthly principal & interest |
|---|---|
| 6.5% | ~$2,275 |
| 7.0% | ~$2,395 |
The current 30-year fixed rate is about 7.18% (Freddie Mac, November 5, 2026), so the 7.0% row is closest to today’s reality.
This is a rate comparison only and does not include taxes, insurance, HOA, or other costs.
What matters most is whether you can find a home that fits your life, your finances, and your long-term plans — at a fair price, with reasonable seller concessions, on loan terms you can afford. If so, it may be a sound long-term decision even if prices or rates move later.
6. What If You’re Selling?
A buyer’s market doesn’t mean homes aren’t selling.
But pricing strategy matters more than ever.
When buyers have more choices, an overpriced home can sit longer before it attracts the right buyer.
Before listing, sellers should:
- Price from recent comparable sales — not just nearby asking prices.
- Compare homes in the same community with similar age, floor plan, and condition.
- Check curb appeal, staging, and photo quality.
- Anticipate repair requests or closing-cost concessions buyers may ask for.
- Adjust strategy based on actual market response.
Fair pricing and clear marketing matter more than ever in this environment.
7. Suzy’s Take: The Real Opportunity Is Knowing the Differences
Greater Phoenix is giving buyers more choice and more negotiating room as 2026 comes to a close.
But from Scottsdale and Chandler to Tempe, Queen Creek, and Surprise, market conditions still vary widely by city.
Whether you’re buying your first home, moving up, or considering an investment property, it pays to understand the specific city, neighborhood, price range, and home — not just the metro-wide headline.
If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or investing in Greater Phoenix, reach out — let’s talk through a plan that fits you.
Source: AZ Big Media, “Metro Phoenix housing market shifts deeper into buyer’s territory”
